Techonomy Barista
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📣 Wall Street turmoil

📣 Wall Street turmoil

AI agents that cost $20K

Techonomy Barista
March 11, 2025

Welcome to another edition of the Techonomy Barista, where today's market is being directed by M. Night Shyamalan. 👻

Today’s top stories:

Wall Street turmoil due to Trump’s policies.
OpenAI’s AI agents cost between $2K and $20K.
VC is resurging in the US.
Alphabet doubles down on Waymo expansion.
Tesla stock tumbles 40%.
OpenAI partners with CoreWeave for computing power.

Our top stories are now offered as a podcast, if you like to listen on the go. This is an AI feature that is in beta and may make mistakes.

🌎️ Market Pulse

Markets of the top 5 GDPs. All numbers are as of closing previous day, except for Gold, which shows opening of current trading day.

🗓️ Economic Calendar

Important economic events for the world's top 5 economies. Timings in red are most important meetings. All times US EST.

🔥 Top Stories

1. Wall Street turmoil as Trump policies trigger economic fears 📉

Source: Bloomberg

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

Trump’s tariff hikes, spending cuts, and geopolitical shakeups fueling fears of economic slowdown.
- Nasdaq 100 plummeted 3.8%, marking its worst day since 2022.
- Tech stocks tanked, with Tesla plunging 15%.
- 2-year Treasuries dropped 11 basis points, signaling a flight to safety.
- Corporate bond market froze, with banks scrapping 10 high-grade deals over credit risk concerns.
Bitcoin hit a four-month low, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.
Investors fled to defensive sectors, boosting energy, utilities, and consumer staples.

Source: FactSet, WSJ

💡 How it impacts you:

Stock portfolios took a hit, especially if heavy on tech and crypto.
Treasuries and defensive stocks gained—safer havens in volatile times.
Corporate borrowing costs may rise, tightening access to capital for businesses.
Potential consumer confidence erosion, possibly slowing job growth and spending.
Increased market volatility could pressure interest rates and financial planning.

Source: FactSet, WSJ

🔮 Industry prediction:

Markets are bracing for a Trump-driven economic reset—Wall Street’s rally may turn into a recession hedge race as investors seek clarity on what “better” means for global trade.

⚡ The bottom line:

Trump’s policies just hit Wall Street like a rogue wave—tech’s sinking, bonds are the new life raft, and investors are scrambling for shelter.

2. OpenAI’s AI agents’ price tag: $2,000 - $20,000 💰️

Source: Jason Redmond, Getty Images

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds

OpenAI is betting on AI agents, as shown in our newsletter at the end of Feb.
Agents cost structure: $2K/month for knowledge workers, $10K/month for coding, and $20K/month for PhD-level research.
- OAI expects 20-25% of revenue in 2025 to come from agents.
- ChatGPT currently pulls in $4B a year.
- May charge Pro users more for heavy usage, beyond the $200/month tier.
AI can now sort sales leads, write code, and conduct research autonomously.
Competitor Cognition’s coding agent costs $500/month, far less than OpenAI’s pricing.

💡 Why it matters

AI automation could replace expensive knowledge workers.
Startups and smaller firms may be priced out, favoring big enterprises.
Businesses investing early may gain a competitive edge.
AI accessibility shifts toward pay-to-play enterprise models.
Rivals like Google & Microsoft will likely adjust their pricing strategies.

🔮 Industry prediction

AI automation is becoming the new white-collar workforce, and businesses will pay premium prices for top-tier agents while startups scramble for affordable alternatives.

Who's moving:

🏃‍♀️ Leading: OpenAI, SoftBank, Microsoft.
🚶‍♂️ Following: Google, Anthropic, Amazon.
⌛ Waiting: IBM, Meta, DeepSeek, smaller AI startups.

What's next:

Now: High-cost AI agents target elite enterprises.
6 Months: Pricing battles heat up with competitors entering the market.
1 Year: AI agents become mainstream, forcing businesses to adopt or fall behind.

⚡ The bottom line

OpenAI wants AI agents to be the six-figure knowledge worker replacements—if companies can afford the price tag.

3. VC in the U.S. experiencing its biggest resurgence since 2021 💹

Source: PitchBook

📝 Background

Massive funding rounds for AI and defense tech companies have driven the market back to levels seen during the peak of the last investment cycle, though funding has concentrated heavily on a handful of elite firms.

🔑 Key Developments

$30B+ invested in start-ups in Q1 ‘25, with $50B more in the pipeline.
80% of VC funding is going to AI-focused firms like OpenAI, Anthropic, Safe Superintelligence, and Anduril.
$80B raised in Q4 2024, the highest since 2021, but 40% went to just six deals.
Stripe ($91.5B), Ramp ($13B), Anthropic ($61.5B), and Shield AI ($5.3B) secured major investments recently.
OpenAI aims to raise $40B from SoftBank, potentially the largest funding round ever.
Safe Superintelligence, with no product yet, raised $1B and is now targeting a $30B valuation.

💡 Implications

Few winners: AI funding is concentrated in a few elite firms, leaving smaller start-ups struggling.
Late-stage focus: VCs favor proven revenue over risky early-stage bets.
Valuation concerns: AI’s rapid growth expectations could lead to overinflated valuations.
Funding divide: Big names like OpenAI and Anduril secure billions, while others find it tough to raise capital.
Hybrid investors: Major firms now blend VC and private equity strategies

🔚 Conclusion

AI hype is driving VC to record highs, but the market is shifting. A few dominant players attract massive funding, reshaping traditional venture capitalism. The real test: can these sky-high valuations hold, or is this another bubble ready to burst?

4. Alphabet doubles down on Waymo expansion 🚨

Source: SF Chronicle

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds

Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi confirms increased investment in Waymo at a Morgan Stanley conference.
Waymo expands to Austin—Uber riders can now be matched with its autonomous vehicles. Atlanta and Miami are next.
200K+ weekly paid robotaxi rides in LA, SF, and Phoenix, per Sundar Pichai.
Raised $5.6B in October & valued at $45B, Waymo is still unprofitable.
Only 25% of Americans prefer robo-taxis over traditional rideshares, per a recent study.

💡 How it impacts you

More cities will see Waymo robotaxis—Austin now, Atlanta and Miami soon.
Uber users in Austin can now ride Waymo AVs—expect more integrations.
Lower costs on future Waymo models could make fares more competitive.
Self-driving skepticism remains—only 1 in 4 Americans prefer it over human drivers.
Alphabet’s AI push in healthcare via Isomorphic Labs could reshape drug discovery.

🔮 Industry prediction

Waymo is speeding toward mainstream adoption, but public trust issues could keep robo-taxis stuck in neutral.

Who's Moving:

🏃‍♀️ Leading: Waymo, Cruise, Tesla (FSD)
🚶‍♂️ Following: Uber, Lyft, Zoox
⌛ Waiting: Ford, GM (after Cruise setbacks)

What's Next:

Now: Waymo expands to Austin, preps for Atlanta & Miami.
6 Months: 6th-gen Waymo driver cuts costs, aiming for scale.
1 Year: More cities, but public adoption still a roadblock.

⚡ The bottom line

Waymo’s expansion is Alphabet’s biggest AI bet on wheels, but convincing riders to ditch human drivers is still the real test.

5. Tesla stock tumbles 40% amid sales slump and political fallout 🚘️

Tesla’s 6-month performance.
Source: Nasdaq

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds

Tesla shares plunged 15.4%, closing at $222.15, marking their lowest level since October.
Stock has lost 40% of its value since Musk backed Trump’s campaign with $270M and celebrated his victory.
Tesla’s U.S. deliveries expected to drop 5% in Q1, as per UBS analysts.
Sales plummeted 45% in Europe in January, despite an EV market increase, with China sales nearly halving year-over-year.
Musk’s right-wing shift alienates Tesla’s traditional buyer base, leading to showroom protests and vandalism.

💡 How it impacts you

Tesla resale value could take a hit as consumer sentiment shifts.
Stockholders face volatility as political and market factors erode confidence.
EV competition rising, with buyers shifting to rivals amid Tesla’s struggles.
Musk’s political stance may influence tech investors' sentiment beyond Tesla.

🔮 Industry prediction

Tesla’s brand crisis could accelerate an EV power shift, with legacy automakers and Chinese rivals gaining market share as eco-conscious buyers flee Musk’s political baggage.

Who's moving:

🏃‍♀️ Leading: BYD, Volkswagen, Hyundai
🚶‍♂️ Following: Ford, Rivian, Polestar
⌛ Waiting: GM, Lucid Motors

What's next:

Now: Tesla fights falling sales, brand damage, and market share loss.
6 Months: EV rivals capitalize on Tesla’s weakened demand.
1 Year: Tesla forced to cut prices or rebrand to regain lost ground.

⚡ The bottom line

Musk’s politics turned Tesla from an EV icon to a partisan lightning rod, giving competitors an opening to steal market share.

6. OpenAI's $12bn cloud move with CoreWeave 🚀

Source: Bloomberg

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

OpenAI inks a 5-year, $11.9bn deal with CoreWeave for AI computing power.
- Takes $350mn equity stake in CoreWeave ahead of its $4bn IPO.
Microsoft previously walked away from a CoreWeave deal due to delivery issues.
- Spent $10bn on CoreWeave but may now be outpaced by OpenAI.
CoreWeave owns 250K+ Nvidia AI GPUs, making it a cloud powerhouse.
OpenAI is diversifying beyond Microsoft for computing infrastructure.
Altman pushes for AI infrastructure growth, while Nadella warns of overbuilding.

💡 Why it matters:

AI advancements could accelerate with more compute power at OpenAI’s disposal.
Cloud computing costs may shift, affecting startups reliant on CoreWeave.
Microsoft's AI dominance faces competition, impacting Azure’s AI cloud lead.
CoreWeave's IPO could surge as OpenAI's investment boosts confidence.
The AI arms race intensifies, pushing Big Tech deeper into infrastructure bets.