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- US jobs slowdown fuels 0.5% Fed rate cut debate
US jobs slowdown fuels 0.5% Fed rate cut debate
China's economy spiralling
You’ve got 99 problems, but staying informed ain’t one - thanks to the Techonomy Barista. 😉
A view of Apple’s campus from Google’s office in the Bay Area.
Today’s news:
Fed debate for a 25 vs. 50 basis points rate cut.
China’s economy nears a 5-year low.
iPhone 16 debuts with a physical camera button - a first.
Google’s ad business anti-trust trial begins.
LLMs now able to generate novel ideas for academic research.
Vy Capital’s close relationship with Musk and his companies.
We’re excited to announce we have launched a podcast for our top stories because we heard some of you like to listen on the move, so please give this a try and let us know what you think! 🙂
Markets
Economic Calendar
The calendar covers important economic meetings for the top five economies. All times are US EST.
Source: FRED, Techonomy Barista analysis.
Main Takeaways:
August’s jobs report showed 142,000 new jobs, below expectations of 160,000.
Downward revisions for July and June unsettled investors.
Debate continues over 25 vs. 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September.
August CPI report on Wednesday (Sep 11) could be the deciding factor for Fed decision.
Market reaction mixed, with stock selloffs and Treasury yield fluctuations.
How It Impacts You:
Job market slowdown might mean fewer opportunities or slower wage growth. Time to dust off that "World's Best Employee" mug and hope your boss notices. ☕
Potential 0.5% rate cut could lead to lower interest rates on loans. Maybe now's the time to finally buy that yacht you've been eyeing...or just refinance your student loans. 🛥️
Your savings account might finally earn more than pocket change, but don't get too excited - it'll probably just cover the "inflation tax" on your favorite snacks. 🤷♀️
If a recession is indeed coming, it might be wise to start building an emergency fund. Consider it your "adult piggy bank" for when the economy decides to play hard to get.
Keep an eye on the CPI report tomorrow - it could influence everything from your grocery bill to your investment portfolio.
Source: Bloomberg.
Key Takeaways:
The China Securities Index (CSI) 300 Index is approaching its lowest close since January 2019, down 7% this year.
$6.5 trillion wiped out from Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since 2021 peak.
State-backed funds spent estimated $66 billion to prop up stocks through mid-August.
Deflation concerns intensifying, potentially spiraling into reduced spending and layoffs.
Wall Street analysts predict China may miss 5% economic growth goal for 2024.
How It Impacts You:
Your investments in Chinese stocks or funds with exposure may see significant losses.
If you’re in China, deflation could lead to lower prices, but also reduced job opportunities and wages.
Travel to China might become cheaper, but maybe hold off on buying that "I ❤️ Beijing" t-shirt until prices drop even more.
If you've been waiting for that made-in-China gadget, good news! It might get cheaper.
Camera Control button on 16
— Ed Ludlow (@EdLudlow)
7:18 PM • Sep 9, 2024
Main takeaways:
iPhone 16 and iPhone Pro have improved internal components and camera functions, with a special camera button on the right side.
Apple Intelligence, the company's AI-enhanced functionality, will roll out gradually, starting in the US next month.
AirPods now include hearing aid functionality and a smaller charging case.
Apple Watch Series 10 boasts a thinner profile, brighter screen, faster charging, and sleep apnea detection.
iPhone 16 pricing starts at $799, reaching $1,199 for the Pro Max model. 📱
What this could mean for you:
Apple's AI is fashionably late to the party, so you'll have to wait a bit longer before your iPhone can finish your sentences for work 💻️ or predict your pizza cravings. 🍕
4. Google’s ad business antitrust trial under way.
Surce: CB Insights, Techonomy Barista analysis.
Main takeaways:
Google is in court facing allegations from the US Justice Department that it manipulates the $677 billion display advertising market.
The government accuses Google of building a "trifecta of monopolies" in website ads, harming publishers and advertisers.
Google denies the claims, stating it's "one big company among many others" and competing with firms like Microsoft and Amazon.
The case focuses on Google's dominance in digital advertising technology, with the company controlling 91% of the market for publishers to offer ad space.
This trial follows a recent ruling against Google for illegally dominating online search.
How Google’s digital ads system works
Source: Bloomberg.
What this could mean for you:
If Google loses, you might finally have a legitimate excuse for why your blog isn't making millions in ad revenue. It wasn't your content after all – it was the monopoly! 💸
Your online shopping experience could change as advertisers potentially gain access to more diverse ad placement options, possibly leading to more targeted (or annoying) ads in your browser.
If the case results in changes to Google's ad tech, you might notice differences in how ads are displayed on websites you visit, potentially affecting load times or overall user experience.
5. LLMs generate more novel academic research ideas than humans, but feasibility falls slightly short. 🤖
In coming up with academic research ideas, AI beats humans in Novelty, Excitement and Overall scores. Feasibility scores could get better with time. Source: arXiv.org
Main takeaways:
Recent tests involving over 100 NLP researchers, show LLMs can produce more novel research ideas than human experts.
While LLM ideas were judged more innovative, they slightly lagged behind in feasibility.
Open challenges remain for LLMs, including issues with self-evaluation and diversity of ideas.
Researchers plan further studies to see if these differences lead to meaningful research outcomes.
What this could mean for you:
Your next research partner might just be an algorithm. Don’t worry, it’ll come up with all the wild ideas, and you can be the one to tell it why they won’t work. 🧠
6. Vy capital bets big on Musk: $4B+ invested in tech tycoon's ventures. 💰
Credit: Techonomy Barista Analysis.
Main takeaways:
John Hering of Vy Capital has invested over half of its $8 billion assets in Elon Musk's companies.
Hering dedicates significant time to Musk's startups, often traveling on short notice to assist.
Investments include SpaceX, Boring Company, X, and XAI, with mixed financial results.
Despite large investments, neither Hering nor his partner Tamas hold board seats in Musk's companies.
Vy Capital has shifted away from its original broad venture capital vision, focusing heavily on Musk-related ventures.
Other news:
AI
Perplexity AI’s boldest play 🏈: Why their biggest Ad hits ‘Monday night football.’
How to safely experiment with generative AI in Ads 🤖⚖️ (without getting sued.)
Replit releases AI agent features that codes and deploys full apps from prompts.
An LLM visualization tool that explains detailed mechanics of Transformers.
Tech
X taps ex-Hyundai marketer Angela Zepeda 🚗🌍 as Global Head of Marketing.
Snapchat sued in New Mexico ⚖️📱: Accused of failing to protect young users.
Business
OpenAI and Thrive Capital fund a 6-month old startup using AI for drug discovery.
Global markets in limbo 🌍📊: Cautious trading before US holiday & jobs report.
Kelcy Warren, the hypercompetitive Mogul ⚡🛢️, Takes aim at environmentalists with major lawsuit.
‘Big Short’ investor explains why he thinks there won’t be another financial crisis soon.
US Politics
The Harris-Trump debate on Tuesday will offer Americans stark contrasts of their on-going presidential campaigns.
Fixing child care isn’t expensive according to Trump.
World
North Korea’s supreme leader promises an exponential increase in nuclear weapons.
Australia’s consumer confidence dipped due to economy stagnation and employment prospect.
China’s exports grew at the fastest rate since March, imports disappoint.
Japan’s economy on the rise 📈, but political risks loom. 🌫️
Interesting
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