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📣 TikTok shutdown imminent

📣 TikTok shutdown imminent

OpenAI's economic blueprint for America

Techonomy Barista
January 16, 2025

After a hiatus during Christmas and New Year, we’re back to bringing you the stories shaping technology and the economy.

Your top stories today:

TikTok shutdown imminent on 19 Jan.
OpenAI's economic blueprint for America.
US Core CPI eases, keeping rate cuts on the horizon for March.
Biden blocks 27 Chinese firms in latest chip war before leaving office.
Biden warns of "extreme wealth" threat in farewell speech.
Even Harvard graduates struggling to find jobs.

Our top stories are now offered as a podcast, if you like to listen on the go. Hit play below to give it a try and let us know what you think!

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🔥 Top Stories

1. TikTok’s U.S. shutdown: “Go Dark” plan looms 🔴

Source: Anna Moneymaker, Getty Images

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

TikTok plans to shut off its app for U.S. users on January 19 if the Supreme Court doesn’t block a federal ban.
- Company has 7,000 employees in the U.S.
- It plans to keep paying them even if SC doesn’t overturn ban.
Users will see a pop-up message directing them to a website about the ban and can download their data.
Apple and Google app stores to block TikTok downloads and Oracle to stop hosting its U.S. data.
TikTok’s Supreme Court appeal argues the law violates the First Amendment, but justices’ questions suggest support for the law.
Speculation grows over ByteDance’s options, including selling TikTok’s U.S. business.

💡 How it impacts you:

TikTok users in the U.S. will lose access immediately unless ByteDance sells TikTok or the Supreme Court intervenes.
Data backups are critical; users should save their content before January 19.
If ByteDance agrees to a sale, TikTok could return with a new owner, potentially changing its features or policies.
Businesses dependent on TikTok’s reach may face a hit, shifting focus to Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts.
A political wildcard adds unpredictability, with Trump’s upcoming inauguration potentially influencing TikTok’s fate.

🔮 Industry prediction:

TikTok’s forced shutdown will accelerate the rise of short-form video competitors like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, triggering a content creator exodus.

Who’s Moving:

🏃‍♂️ Leading: Instagram, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat Spotlight.
🚶‍♀️ Following: Emerging apps like Clapper and BeReal.
⌛ Waiting: ByteDance—delaying decisions to sell TikTok U.S. or risk irrelevance.

What’s Next:

Now: Users back up data and explore alternatives.
6 Months: Meta and Google ramp up campaigns to absorb TikTok creators.
1 Year: A potential ByteDance sale reshapes TikTok’s U.S. market, or it remains a cautionary tale of geopolitics impacting tech.

⚡ The bottom line:

TikTok’s app shutdown would be the ultimate “404 error” for U.S. creators while its rivals prep to swipe its crown.

2. AI in America: OpenAI's economic blueprint 🚀

Source: OpenAI

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

OpenAI outlines a framework to ensure AI benefits are shared equitably across society, emphasizing democratic values.
Highlights AI’s current contributions: personalized education, life-saving medical advancements, military defense, and creative empowerment.
Warns against losing the AI race to authoritarian regimes like China, where $175 billion awaits AI investments.
Recommends building AI-specific infrastructure (chips, energy, talent) to drive down costs and create jobs.
Calls for collaborative global alliances with like-minded nations to outpace authoritarian models.

💡 How it impacts you:

Education & healthcare: AI tools will provide better access to personalized solutions, benefitting communities nationwide.
Consumer protection: New AI regulations ensure transparency (e.g., provenance standards for AI-generated content).
Job opportunities: Investments in AI infrastructure promise tens of thousands of skilled-trade jobs.
AI accessibility: Efforts to digitize government data and scale AI tools will make tech adoption more seamless for businesses and individuals.
National security: AI safeguards aim to protect against misuse by adversaries or unauthorized applications.

🔮 Industry prediction:

AI policy is gearing up for its "Space Race 2.0" moment. Countries investing in democratic AI infrastructure will dominate global influence, leaving non-aligned economies struggling to compete.

Who's Moving:

🏃‍♀️ Leading: OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anduril.
🚶‍♂️ Following: Meta, Amazon, smaller AI start-ups.
⌛ Waiting: Governments with patchwork regulations.

What’s Next:

Now: US builds bipartisan AI coalitions to establish foundational rules.
6 Months: Launch of AI economic zones across key states.
1 Year: Broader adoption of global AI alliances against authoritarian models.

⚡ The bottom line:

OpenAI’s AI blueprint pushes democratic innovation to secure US leadership, delivering productivity, jobs, and strategic edge while warning against autocratic misuse.

3. US Core CPI eases, raising bets for Fed cuts soon 🍃

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

US Core CPI rose 0.2% in December, marking the smallest increase in six months, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, driven largely by energy costs.
Treasury yields dropped, S&P 500 rose, and the dollar weakened post-data.
Economists suggest the report increases chances of a March rate cut if trends continue.
Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation, due soon, is expected to align with the 2% target.
Real hourly earnings grew 1% year-over-year, the weakest since July.

💡 How it impacts you:

Borrowing costs could decline if the Fed cuts rates in March, affecting mortgages and loans.
Slower rent increases may provide relief for renters, but housing costs remain elevated.
Cheaper energy and smaller hikes in goods prices might ease overall spending.
Investment markets gain momentum, with stocks rallying on the softer inflation data.
Watch for shifts in wage growth influencing consumer purchasing power.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Inflation’s losing its edge, but the Fed’s playing it like a slow dance — no sudden moves until all steps align.

Key Players:

🎯 Leading: Treasury markets, Fed policymakers
⚡ Following: Real estate, equities, consumer goods
🕵️ Watching: Energy sectors, retail

Timeline:

January: Fed monitors key inflation and retail data.
March: Potential rate cut if CPI trends stay soft.
2H 2025: Broader easing impacts housing and spending trends.

⚡ The bottom line:

Inflation takes a breather with a 0.2% core CPI rise, but it’s a cautious dance for the Fed — keeping rates steady while eyeing March for potential easing.

4. 🛑 Biden admin’s final days in office blocks 27 Chinese firms in latest chip war escalation

Source: Britannica

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

U.S. government added 27 new Chinese entities to its trade blacklist.
New rules require chip makers to get licenses for shipping advanced semiconductors to China, even for non-U.S. companies like TSMC.
Ten companies were blacklisted for military AI development, while 16 others for advancing China's domestic chip capabilities.
TSMC's core technology was found in Huawei's AI chips last year, prompting tighter controls.
China's Commerce Ministry called these restrictions "economic coercion and bullying."

💡 How it impacts you:

Consumer electronics from Chinese manufacturers might face delays or price increases due to restricted chip access.
AI-powered services and products from Chinese companies could become limited or unavailable in Western markets.
Global smartphone and computer prices might increase as manufacturers adjust to new supply chain restrictions.
Tech products might face longer development cycles as companies navigate complex export regulations.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Chip wars are the new space race. The U.S. and China’s AI and semiconductor standoff will accelerate regional self-sufficiency drives, pushing non-U.S. players to hedge against geopolitical risks.

Who's Moving:

🏃‍♀️ Leading: U.S. semiconductor ecosystem
🚶‍♂️ Following: Taiwan, Japan, Netherlands
⌛ Waiting: Chinese chip manufacturers

What's Next:

Now: Rapid restructuring of global chip supply chains
6 Months: Chinese firms accelerate domestic chip development
1 Year: Two distinct global semiconductor ecosystems emerge

⚡ The bottom line: While TSMC plays hot potato with Chinese clients, U.S. just hit ctrl+alt+delete on China's AI chip access.

5. Biden warns of "extreme wealth" threat in farewell speech 💵

Source: Roberto Schmidt, Getty Images

⌛️ The deets in 30 seconds:

Biden highlighted a "dangerous concentration of power" among the ultra-wealthy, likening it to a modern oligarchy.
Warned of a "tech industrial complex" replacing the "military industrial complex" of Eisenhower's era.
- Hailed AI as "the most consequential technology of our time," urging responsible governance.
Criticized wealthy elites for leveraging power to secure tax breaks and derail climate initiatives.
- Trump’s billionaire allies, including Elon Musk, were framed as emblematic of this power shift.
Biden emphasized his administration’s economic policies, including semiconductor subsidies and infrastructure investments.
Exits office with a 36.1% approval rating and a Democratic loss of the White House and Congress.

💡 How it impacts you:

Wealth inequality: Biden’s warnings underline the increasing power gap affecting middle-class opportunities.
Tech dominance: "Tech industrial complex" signals potential risks from unchecked tech influence in daily life.
AI governance: Responsible AI use is key as advancements impact industries and personal privacy.
Economic shifts: Subsidies for semiconductors and infrastructure could boost job markets long-term but not immediately.
Democracy in flux: Increased misinformation may erode trust in institutions, impacting civic participation.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Wealth concentration will fuel stricter tech regulations as public trust in corporations dwindles and AI’s ethical challenges grow.

Key Players:

📢 Leading: Biden-era policies, EU regulators.
⚡ Making moves: Big Tech (Meta, Google), AI firms (OpenAI, Anthropic).
👥 Worth watching: Public advocacy groups, next-gen tech startups.

Timeline:

Near-term: Regulatory discussions ramp up in 2025.
Mid-term: AI ethical frameworks emerge by 2027.
Long-term: Structural economic shifts redefine wealth dynamics by 2030.

⚡ The bottom line:

Biden’s farewell painted a stark warning: extreme wealth is the villain in America’s democracy story, and unchecked tech influence is the plot twist few saw coming.

6. Even Harvard M.B.A.s are struggling to land jobs 🙏

Source: The schools, WSJ

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

23% of job-seeking Harvard M.B.A.s from the 2024 class were still unemployed three months post-graduation, up from 20% in 2023 and 10% in 2022.
Other top-tier schools like Wharton, Stanford, and NYU also reported the worst job-placement stats in years.
A shift in employer hiring strategies sees fewer pre-graduation job offers and reduced recruitment from tech and consulting giants like Amazon, Google, and McKinsey.
Columbia Business School bucked the trend, improving employment rates, with M.B.A. median starting salaries hovering around $175,000.
Schools like MIT Sloan and UVA Darden are urging students to tap into professor and alumni networks to stand out.
Harvard is piloting AI tools to bridge skills gaps and offering intensives on networking and pitching.

💡 How it impacts you:

Job-hunting challenges for elite graduates signal a more competitive white-collar job market across industries.
Expect longer timelines to secure roles, with more emphasis on upskilling and networking.
Decline in tech and consulting recruitment impacts traditional M.B.A. career paths.
International students may face extra hurdles due to sponsorship limitations, emphasizing the need for diversified plans.
Soft skills like personal branding are becoming as critical as technical expertise.

🔮 Industry prediction:

The M.B.A. job market is entering a "DIY era" as traditional recruiters pull back—expect a gig economy twist with contract roles becoming the "starter pack" for elite grads.

Key Players:

🎯 Leading: Columbia Business School, niche consulting firms.
⚡ Following: Amazon, McKinsey (with scaled-back recruitment).
👥 Waiting: Startups and mid-sized firms rebuilding internship programs.

Timeline:

Q1: Networking drives intensify as grads pivot to alumni connections.
Mid-2025: Tech hiring may rebound modestly post-restructuring.
2026: Skills gap solutions like AI-driven tools reshape placement strategies.

⚡ The bottom line:

The elite M.B.A. job hunt is starting to look like reality TV auditions—fewer roles, higher stakes, and everyone scrambling for the judges’ attention (or alumni recommendations).