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📣 Record level bets on Fed rate cut today

📣 Record level bets on Fed rate cut today

California passes new AI deepfake laws

Techonomy Barista
September 18, 2024

No faf, just facts - freshly distilled to perfection by the Techonomy Barista. 🍸️

Federal Reserve officials wait outside for Jerome Powell to announce the first rate cut in years.

Today’s decadent techonomy treats:

Bets on extent of Fed rate cut reach record level.
New laws in California to tackle AI deepfakes.
An AI-only social network with you as the only human.
Crypto VCs seeking new ways to generate returns.
Uber launches rider verification to protect drivers.

We’re excited to announce we have launched a podcast for our top stories because we heard some of you like to listen on the move, so please give this a try and let us know what you think! 🙂

Markets

Economic Calendar

Calendar shows important economic events for the top five economies of the world. All times US EST.

1. Bets on today’s Fed rate cut at record level 📊

Source: Polymarket

Key takeaways:

Traders heavily betting on a 0.5% rate cut.
Market-implied odds put chance of half-point move at just over 50%.
October fed funds futures activity reaches highest level since 1988.
JPMorgan survey shows reduction in long positions before Fed decision.
Bank of America survey indicates investors leaning bullish.
Important question: will it be a traditional 0.25%, or a bigger 0.5%?

Source: Bloomberg

How it could impact you:

If you've got a variable rate loan, you might be in for a pleasant surprise.
Your savings account might finally stop looking like it's on a diet. But don't get too excited - it's more "light snack" than "all-you-can-eat buffet". 🍔
Planning to buy a house? Keep an eye on those mortgage rates. They could drop faster than your resolution to go to the gym regularly.
If you work in an interest-rate sensitive industry, your job security might get a boost. Time to switch from stress-eating to celebration-snacking!

2. California tackles AI deepfakes with new laws targeting social media 🤖

Source: NY Times

Key takeaways:

California enacted three laws to combat election-related AI deepfakes, with one taking effect immediately.
Social media platforms with over 1 million California users must label or remove deceptive AI deepfakes within 72 hours of a complaint.
The laws apply to deepfakes of presidential, vice-presidential, and statewide candidates, as well as elected officials and election administrators.
California also passed two laws regulating deepfake use in Hollywood, requiring explicit consent for performers and estate permission for deceased performers.

What this could mean for you:

Your social media feeds might start looking like a game of "Spot the Fake," with AI-generated content getting slapped with warning labels. 🕵️‍♂️
On the bright side, you'll have a better chance of knowing if that viral video of a politician doing the Macarena is real or just another AI prank. But let's be honest, sometimes the real ones are even weirder. 🕺

Source: Techcrunch.

Key takeaways:

SocialAI, an app designed as a "private social network" for sharing thoughts, offers a Twitter-like experience with only AI-generated interactions.
Users select from 32 bot "types", app learns user preferences over time.
Aims to provide a safe space for reflection and feedback.
Currently free to download without in-app purchases.

What this could mean for you:

Finally, a social network where you're guaranteed to be the most interesting person in the room. Take that, Instagram influencers! 👊
The app could serve as a low-stakes testing ground for ideas or posts you're nervous about sharing on traditional platforms. 💡
It may offer a unique space for self-reflection and personal growth, free from judgment of real peers.
The novelty may wear off quickly, potentially leading to short-lived engagement with the app.

4. Crypto VCs find new ways to generate returns 💰

Source: CCData, The Information

Key takeaways:

Crypto investors are using token staking to generate cash flow, with yields up to 20% annually.
New token listings have decreased from 606 in 2022 to 289 in 2023 due to regulatory scrutiny from the SEC, especially for US-based crypto startups.
Non-U.S. crypto companies have more opportunities for token-based liquidity.
Staking rewards make up a small portion of overall distributions to limited partners.

How it could impact you:

If you're invested in crypto funds, expect slower returns as traditional exit strategies like IPOs remain challenging. Time to practice your "patient investor" face. 😐
The focus on staking could mean more steady, albeit smaller, returns. It's like getting a trickle of water instead of waiting for a flood – at least you won't die of thirst. 💧
If you're a startup founder in the crypto space, consider setting up shop outside the U.S. to avoid regulatory headaches. "Moving to Crypto-Friendly Islands" might become the new digital nomad trend.
Keep an eye on the 2024 U.S. presidential race – the crypto industry is supporting Trump. Who knew your crypto gains could depend on political gains? 🗳️

5. Uber to verify all riders, bans 15,000 fake accounts 🚗

Key takeaways:

Uber introduces rider verification to enhance driver safety.
All riders' personal info will be cross-checked with third-party databases.
15,000 rider accounts banned for using fake or inappropriate names.
Pilot tests showed verified riders give more 5-star ratings.
Move aims to address drivers' concerns about safety and support.

What this could mean for you:

Your Uber account might get a fancy new "verified" badge, making you feel like a VIP in the world of ridesharing. 🏅
You may feel more secure knowing that both you and your driver have been vetted, reducing the likelihood of scams or unsafe situations.
This change could lead to an overall improvement in ride quality and user experience as problematic riders are filtered out.