In today’s newsletter: AI’s power plays are turning boardrooms into battlegrounds, Big Tech’s next moves are rewriting the rulebook, and global markets are giving us the rollercoaster we didn’t ask for.

Your top stories:

1. OpenAI faces hurdles in push toward for-profit conversion

2. Skilled immigrants showdown erupts on the Internet.

3. Market momentum shows cracks at end of year.

4. Trump pushed Supreme Court to delay TikTok ban.

5. Corporate borrowing hits $8tn peak in 2024.

Market Pulse

🗓️ Economic Calendar

🔥 Top Stories

1. OpenAI’s For-Profit push faces big hurdles 🤺 

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wants to convert OpenAI from a nonprofit to a for-profit corporation.

• Microsoft, its largest investor with over $13 billion committed, is negotiating terms like equity stake, cloud exclusivity, and a 20% revenue share.

• Legal battles loom as Elon Musk and Meta oppose the conversion.

• OpenAI projects $4B revenue in 2024, $100B by 2029, but won’t turn a profit until 2029.

• If the conversion isn’t completed within two years, recent investors can reclaim $7.2B plus interest.

• OpenAI’s AGI milestone definition—the point when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits.

💡 How it impacts you:

• AI advancements may slow if OpenAI’s restructuring hits roadblocks, delaying product releases like ChatGPT updates.

• Microsoft’s cloud dominance could shrink if OpenAI diversifies its providers, leading to broader cloud competition.

• Legal challenges from Musk and Meta might set precedents for nonprofit-to-profit transitions in tech.

• IPO possibility grows with for-profit conversion, allowing public investment in OpenAI’s growth.

• Your AI tools’ cost could rise as OpenAI moves to balance profitability with accessibility.

🔮 Industry prediction:

AI’s funding battle is turning into a tech chess match—OpenAI’s pivot to for-profit could trigger a wave of cloud and AI provider realignments, reshaping the competitive landscape.

Who's Moving:

• 🏃‍♀️ Leading: OpenAI, Microsoft, Google Cloud

• 🚶‍♂️ Following: Amazon AWS, Oracle, Meta

• ⌛ Waiting: Nonprofit AI groups, smaller cloud players

What's Next:

• Now: OpenAI pushes for-profit restructuring amid Microsoft negotiations.

• 6 Months: Potential legal hurdles as Musk’s lawsuits proceed.

• 1 Year: Cloud exclusivity debates could redraw major AI partnerships.

⚡ The bottom line:

OpenAI’s restructuring drama feels like the tech world’s version of Game of Thrones—alliances, betrayals, and a quest for ultimate dominance.

2. Skilled immigrant showdown erupts on Internet 🚨

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• A rift grows among Trump’s backers over skilled immigration policies.

• Immigration hard-liners clash with tech leaders like Elon Musk, David Sacks and Sriram Krishnan.

• Musk defends H-1B visas, citing a lack of domestic talent; Tesla used 724 visas this year.

• Laura Loomer criticizes Musk and Indian American adviser Sriram Krishnan as anti-MAGA.

• Nikki Haley urges investment in American education over foreign worker reliance.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Tech industry workers may see shifts in hiring policies tied to visa regulations.

• American graduates could benefit from pushes for workforce investment.

• H-1B visa holders face uncertainty depending on Trump’s final policy stance.

• Social media users might see debates over free speech and moderation escalate.

• Tech companies face potential talent shortages if visa policies tighten.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Skilled immigration policy is becoming the tech sector’s battleground, with major players pushing for global talent access as nationalism fuels resistance.

• Key Players:

  • 🎯 Moving Markets: Elon Musk, David Sacks

  • ⚡ Making Moves: Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai

  • 👥 Worth Watching: Nikki Haley, Laura Loomer

• Timeline:

  • Q1: Initial visa policy announcements.

  • Q2: Industry lobbying intensifies.

  • 2H: Potential shifts in tech hiring trends.

⚡ The bottom line:

Tech’s talent hunt is hitting a wall of nationalism, as H-1Bs become a political flashpoint fueled by both fear and necessity.

3. Market momentum hits the brakes in year-end twist 📊

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Stock momentum strategy gained 31% in 2024, marking best performance since 2002.

• S&P 500 climbed 25% but average stock in index only rose half that amount.

  • Tech giants like Nvidia and Meta stayed market leaders through 2024.

• Market saw sharp 1.7% drop on Friday with no clear trigger.

• BlackRock's $30 billion investment-grade ETF had its worst fourth quarter in eight years.

• Long-dated Treasury ETFs ended deeply negative after volatile year.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Your index fund returns might be masking broader market weakness.

• Tech-heavy portfolios face higher risk from concentrated positions.

• Bond holdings could see more volatility as market dynamics shift.

• Investment strategies may need rebalancing to avoid momentum trap.

🔮 Industry prediction:

The momentum party's hangover is coming faster than a New Year's Day headache.

• Key Players: 
  🎯 Moving Markets: Passive investment giants
  ⚡ Making Moves: Quant trading firms
  👥 Worth Watching: Value investors plotting comeback

• Timeline: 
  Q1: Tech rally faces reality check
  Q2: Value stocks stage comeback
  2H: Market breadth widens beyond usual suspects

⚡ The bottom line: 

Wall Street's momentum trade is giving major last-song-at-the-party vibes as 2024 wraps up.

4. 🔒 Trump urges Supreme Court to delay TikTok ban

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Trump asks the Supreme Court to pause a law banning TikTok set to take effect Jan. 19.

  • He cites the need for time post-inauguration to negotiate a resolution.

  • Says, only he “possesses the consummate dealmaking expertise, the electoral mandate, and the political will to negotiate a resolution to save the platform while addressing the national security concerns expressed by the government.”

• Biden administration argues Chinese control of TikTok poses serious national security threats.

• Trump hints at free speech concerns, saying the law risks setting a global precedent.

• Trump met TikTok’s CEO recently, expressing a “warm spot” for the platform.

💡 How it impacts you:

• TikTok’s future in the US hinges on upcoming court decisions, impacting over 150M users.

• A ban could affect content creators’ incomes and businesses reliant on the platform.

• Free speech issues linked to social media regulation remain a significant concern.

• Potential sale or restructuring might bring changes to how TikTok operates in the US.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Social media’s legal battles are unraveling with the intensity of a reality show finale—TikTok’s case could set the stage for how global platforms face US scrutiny, blending First Amendment debates with national security drama.

• Key Players:

  • 📺 Leading: Biden administration, TikTok

  • ⚡️ Making Moves: US Justice Department, tech CEOs

  • 👥 Worth Watching: Content creators, global social media platforms

• Timeline:

  • Jan. 10: Supreme Court hearing.

  • Jan. 19: Law’s effective date.

  • Post-Jan. 20: Trump administration’s role in resolving the dispute.

⚡ The bottom line:

Trump’s TikTok gambit merges free speech and national security—a blockbuster sequel where politics meets tech, starring a platform loved by millions.

5. Corporate borrowing hits $8tn peak in 2024 💸

Global corporate issuance of debt reaches record high

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Global corporate debt sales reached $7.93tn in 2024, jumping over 33% from 2023 levels.

• Investment-grade bond spreads tightened to 0.77 percentage points post-election, marking lowest level since late 1990s.

• Investors poured record $170bn into global corporate bond funds in 2024.

• Companies rushed to secure funding before US election, then extended borrowing into 2025.

• Key borrowers included Cisco Systems, Bristol Myers Squibb, Boeing, and Home Depot.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Higher corporate borrowing lead to increased product prices as companies service their debt.

• Your bond fund investments might see lower returns as yields get squeezed by high demand.

• 401(k) and pension funds holding corporate bonds face increased risk from compressed spreads.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Record corporate borrowing is setting up 2025 to be Wall Street's plot twist season. Companies gorged on cheap debt like it's an all-you-can-eat buffet, but the bill's coming due.

• Key Players: 
  🎯 Moving Markets: Investment Banks, Federal Reserve
  ⚡ Making Moves: Big Pharma, Tech Giants
  👥 Worth Watching: Private Equity Firms

• Timeline: 
  Q1: Companies rush pre-election funding
  Q2: Post-election borrowing surge
  2H: M&A activity picks up steam

⚡ The bottom line: Corporate America's borrowing spree is giving "buy now, pay later" energy on an $8 trillion scale.

🗞️ Speed Reads

🤖 AI & Tech

Non-profit joins Musk in blocking OpenAI’s transition to for-profit.

Where humans still have an edge on AI.

Google is using Claude AI to improve its own Gemini AI.

OpenAI needs more capital than they initially thought.

💼 Startup & Business

Lyft is suing the city of San Fran for charging it over $100M in taxes.

Accounting firm Bench shuts down.

Temu’s has established itself, for now.

🏢 US Politics

Tump’s border czar believes military bases could help with deportation push.

Cutting the U.S. deficit is easy to do but is unpopular.

Homelessness in the U.S. topped 770K this year - 18% more than 2023.

💫 Mind Candy

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