Your top stories today:

1. OpenAI rejects Musk’s $97.4B takeover bid.

2. AI tech aiming for nuclear power for acceleration.

3. US inflation rises to 3% in January, Fed cautious on cuts.

4. Anthropic aiming for $34.5B revenue in 2027.

5. Seed round benchmarks, if you’re raising startup capital.

Market Pulse

🗓️ Economic Calendar

🔥 Top Stories

1. OpenAI rejects Musk’s $97.4B takeover bid 🔨 

📝 Background:

OpenAI’s board of directors has unanimously rejected a $97.4 billion bid from Elon Musk and his consortium of investors, reinforcing its stance that the company is “not for sale.” The move intensifies the longstanding feud between Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as both vie for dominance in artificial intelligence.

🔑 Key Developments:

• OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor emphasized the rejection, stating Musk’s bid was an attempt to "disrupt his competition."

  • Letter asserted that the offer was not aligned with the nonprofit’s mission to serve "all of humanity."

• Musk’s legal counsel accused OpenAI’s board of engaging in self-dealing, selling the company’s assets to themselves at a fraction of Musk’s offer.

• California Attorney General Robert Bonta has signaled regulatory scrutiny over OpenAI’s transition to a for-profit model.

• Amid the battle, Musk is also securing funds for his A.I. start-up, xAI, which is in early talks for a new round of financing that could value it at $75 billion.

💡 Implications:

• For OpenAI: Rejecting Musk’s bid safeguards its independence but may attract more regulatory scrutiny over its evolving corporate structure.

• For Musk: His legal battle and takeover attempt signal a larger power struggle in A.I., even as he raises substantial funds for xAI.

• For the AI Industry: The power dynamics between OpenAI, Microsoft, and Musk highlight the high-stakes nature of AI development and control.

• For Investors: Potential investors in OpenAI and xAI must navigate an increasingly contentious AI landscape, with legal and regulatory uncertainties looming.

• For Regulators: The case underscores broader concerns about AI governance and corporate accountability in the tech sector.

🔚 Conclusion:

As OpenAI continues its transition to a for-profit model, Musk’s legal and financial maneuvers will likely shape the future of AI competition. With regulatory scrutiny mounting, the next chapter in this power struggle could have significant ramifications for the broader tech industry.

2. ⚡️ Can tech get nuclear power to move at AI speeds?

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

• AI’s skyrocketing electricity needs are pushing tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft to bet big on nuclear power.

• Small modular reactors (SMRs) are seen as the future—faster to build and scalable—but regulatory hurdles and costs remain massive.

• Amazon’s SMR project in Richland, WA could be online by the early 2030s, but that’s still slower than AI’s pace.

• Microsoft is reviving a Three Mile Island reactor, aiming for an operational restart by 2028.

• Grid demand is surging—U.S. electricity needs could rise 128 gigawatts in five years, a fivefold increase from prior forecasts.

💡 Why it matters:

• Data centers are consuming up to 12% of U.S. electricity by 2028, potentially driving up energy costs.

• Renewables alone aren’t enough to power AI—nuclear’s resurgence could shape the future of clean energy.

• Tech companies will influence U.S. energy policy, potentially leading to faster regulatory approval for nuclear projects.

• Job opportunities in nuclear energy and AI-driven infrastructure are set to grow, from engineering to regulatory roles.

• If nuclear stagnates, AI firms may turn to fossil fuels, complicating carbon neutrality goals.

🔮 Industry Prediction:

Nuclear power’s rebirth will depend on tech money, but its real test is whether regulators can move at AI speed.

Who's Moving:

• 🏃‍♀️ Leading: Amazon, Microsoft, Google, X-energy

• 🚶‍♂️ Following: Valar Atomics, TerraPower, Kairos Power

• ⌛ Waiting: Traditional utilities, state regulators

What's Next:

• Now: Non-binding nuclear deals stack up; regulatory delays loom.

• 6 Months: More SMR investments and site selections.

• 1 Year: First major project approvals, but construction remains slow.

⚡ The Bottom Line:

AI’s energy hunger is forcing a nuclear revival, but regulation could keep it stuck in buffering mode.

3. 📊 US inflation rises to 3% in January, Fed cautious on cuts

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• US inflation hit 3% in January, exceeding expectations of 2.9%.

  • Egg prices surged 15.2% in a month, 53% year-over-year, driven by avian flu.

• Markets now expect just one Fed rate cut in 2024, delaying expectations.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.1% intraday, closing 0.3% lower; Nasdaq stayed flat.

• Trump renewed calls for rate cuts, linking them to upcoming tariffs.

• Fed Chair Powell: "We’ve made great progress, but we’re not there yet."

💡 How it impacts you:

• Borrowing stays expensive as the Fed maintains high rates to tame inflation.

• Savings accounts & bonds stay attractive with high yields holding steady.

• Stock market volatility as investors adjust expectations for rate cuts.

• Imported goods could get pricier with new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada.

• Wages may hold strong, but inflation could eat into real earnings.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Inflation’s comeback is turning the Fed into a strict parent delaying allowance—markets better buckle up for a longer wait on rate cuts than expected.

🛠️ Who’s Moving:

• 📈 Leading: Treasury bonds, inflation-hedged assets (gold, TIPS)

• 🏃 Following: Rate-sensitive stocks (tech, housing)

• 🤷 Waiting: Fed watchers hoping for an early pivot

⏳ Timeline:

• Now: Sticky inflation fuels cautious Fed tone.

• 6 months: Market adjusts to delayed rate cuts.

• 1 year: Election-driven policies could reshape inflation trajectory.

⚡ The bottom line:

Inflation’s like that ex you thought was gone for good—it just came back, messing with your plans. Expect a bumpy ride before the Fed is ready to lower rates.

4. Anthropic's soaring growth projections: aiming for $34.5B in 2027 revenue

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Anthropic burned $5.6 billion in cash last year but plans to cut that by nearly half in 2025.

• Projected $3.7 billion in 2025 revenue, with an optimistic scenario of $34.5 billion by 2027.

  • Base case scenario: $12 billion in 2027 revenue, up from $2.2 billion in 2025.

• OpenAI generates 5x Anthropic’s current revenue by forecasting $44 billion in 2027 revenue.

• Anthropic aims for $20 billion API revenue in 2027, surpassing OpenAI’s API projections.

• The company is seeking $2 billion in funding at a $58 billion valuation, while OpenAI targets $260 billion..

💡 How it impacts the industry:

• Business AI spending is accelerating, as both companies are scaling aggressively.

• Anthropic’s API focus means businesses will have more AI-driven automation tools.

• Pricing pressures may rise, with competition from cheaper AI models like DeepSeek.

• Cloud AI battles are heating up, impacting Microsoft, Amazon, and Google’s AI strategies.

• Investor money is flooding AI, with multi-billion-dollar funding rounds shaping the industry.

🔮 Industry prediction:

The AI race is shifting from chatbots to API dominance, where OpenAI and Anthropic will battle for enterprise wallets, not just consumer hype.

Who's Moving:

• 🏃‍♂️ Leading: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind

• 🤚 Following: Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Mistral AI

• ⌛ Waiting: Apple, High-Flyer Capital (DeepSeek), Stability AI

What's Next:

• Now: Claude’s next-gen model launches, competing with GPT-4 Turbo.

• 6 Months: AI pricing wars escalate with cheaper, high-performance models.

• 1 Year: Enterprises shift towards API-based AI over standalone chatbots.

⚡ The bottom line:

Anthropic is playing catch-up with OpenAI, betting big on API revenue and enterprise AI, but its burn rate and cloud costs could be a major hurdle.

5. 🚀 Raising a seed? Carta's 2025 fundraising benchmarks are here

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

• SAFEs aren’t "cheaper"—just delayed dilution. A $10M SAFE cap isn’t a locked valuation, and stacking too many can hurt you at Series A.

• Series A expectations are brutal. The median raise is $12M, but traction is king—raising on vision alone is nearly dead.

• Valuations are up, but so is investor pickiness. AI startups are inflating medians, but if you're not AI-first, expect different multiples.

• Bigger raises aren’t always better. The dilution difference between Seed and Series A is ~20%, but Series A comes with serious expectations.

💡 How it impacts you:

• SAFEs can backfire. Too many, and your dilution at Series A will be worse than you expect.

• Traction is non-negotiable. If you’re eyeing a $12M+ raise, revenue, burn, and GTM need to be rock-solid.

• AI hype skews reality. If you’re not in AI, your valuation multiple might not align with benchmark medians.

• Stretching your Seed round might be smarter. If you can push to true product-market fit, do it before jumping to Series A.

🔮 Industry prediction:

The "easy money" era is over. VCs are still writing checks, but they’re fewer and bigger—meaning fewer second chances for founders who miss the mark.

Who's Moving:

• 🏃‍♀️ Leading: AI-first startups, deep tech, capital-efficient SaaS

• 🚶‍♂️ Following: Consumer tech, fintech, marketplace models

• ⌛ Waiting: Pre-revenue startups, vision-first pitches

What's Next:

• Now: Bigger Series A raises, but stricter diligence.

• 6 Months: More selective funding, fewer but larger deals.

• 1 Year: Only high-traction startups securing Series A.

⚡ The bottom line:

Seed-stage fundraising is turning into The Hunger Games—survival depends on traction, not just a great story.

💫 Mind Candy

🗞️ Speed Reads

🤖 AI & Tech

Google claims U.S faces a power crisis against China in AI race.

OpenAI’s roadmap for GPT-5.

Job ad for YC startup Firecrawl wants to hire an AI agent for $15K a year.

Perplexity AI launches its own Deep Research tool and it is free for all.

💼 Startup & Business

Zeta, a software provider to banks and fintechs, now valued at $2B.

Robotics startup Figure AI to raise $1.5B at roughly $40B valuation.

Turo drops plans for an IPO.

Meta’s CTO to staff - quit if you don’t like our new policies.

DoorDash sued by Uber for anti-competitive practices.

TikTok is now back to Apple and Google app stores.

🇺🇸 U.S Politics

Anger, chaos and confusion as federal workers protest layoffs.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) staff impacted by Trump and DOGE.

Nuclear bomb specialists who were laid off are being recalled by Energy Department.

🌏️ Global Affairs (non-US)

The impact of weak Japanese Yen on the economy.

Germany’s economy faces longest decline in post-war history.

Indian students contribute more than $8B to the US economy annually.

China’s economy needs bold steps for a boost.

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