📣 OpenAI projects $100B revenue by 2029

This is the Techonomy Barista, your curated feed of tech revolutions and economic evolutions. 📱

On the platter today:

1. OpenAI’s revenue to hit $3.7B in 2024 and $11.6B in 2025.

2. Amazon Prime Video rakes in $1.8B in upfront commitments.

3. California governor vetoes AI safety bill.

4. Chinese equities have the best week since November 2008.

5. Unicorn valuations are getting rare again.

Markets

Economic Calendar

1. OpenAI's revenue soars 1,700% in 2024, project $11.6B in 2025, but losses loom large 🚀

Key takeaways:

• OpenAI expects $3.7 billion in annual sales for 2024 (a 1,700% jump from 2023), projecting to $11.6 billion in 2025. 💰️ 

• Company anticipates losing about $5 billion this year after operational costs.

• ChatGPT user base grew to 350 million monthly users as of June. 💹 

• ChatGPT prices could increase by $2 in 2025 and to $44 by 2029.

• OpenAI predicts its revenue will hit $100B in 2029, matching the annual sales of Nestlé or Target. 🤯 

What this could mean for you and the AI industry:

• Your favorite AI chatbot might come with a heftier price tag soon. This increase should justify the additional features a user would get with it. 🤌 

• OpenAI's explosive growth could spark an even bigger AI arms race, with competitors scrambling to catch up. Expect a flood of new AI products and features coming your way. 🏎️

• The company's massive losses might make investors sweat, but hey, who needs profits when you're busy revolutionizing the world, right? 💸 

2. Amazon's Prime Video ad venture rakes in $1.8 billion in commitments 💰

Key takeaways:

• Amazon exceeded its $1.8 billion goal in ad-spending commitments for its video-streaming services, including Prime Video.

• Achievement comes just 9 months after introducing ads on Prime Video. 🚀 

• Amazon's ad revenue surpasses Netflix's "several hundred million dollars" in upfront ad spending commitments.

• Its marketplace ad business generated $47 billion in revenue last year.

What this could mean for the streaming industry:

• Amazon's not just delivering packages anymore; they're delivering ad revenues that make them a strong contender in this business. 🥊

• Netflix might need to step up its ad game, or it could find itself in a "Stranger Things" situation where being upside down isn't just a plot point, it's their market position. 🙃

3. California governor vetoes AI safety bill citing 'false sense of security' 🚫

Key takeaways:

• Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed the Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act (SB 1047).

• Newsom cited concerns about the bill's burden on AI companies and its potential to give a false sense of security.

• The bill would have applied to AI companies in California with models costing over $100 million to train or $10 million to fine-tune.

• It proposed safeguards like a "kill switch" and testing protocols to reduce risks of cyberattacks or pandemics.

• The decision sparked debate, with supporters including Elon Musk and Hollywood figures, while opponents included tech industry groups and some California politicians.

What this could mean for you and the AI industry:

• The lack of state-level regulation might affect your trust in AI systems, depending on whether you’re in the e/acc or the EA camp.

• AI companies in California can breathe a sigh of relief, but they might want to keep those "In case of Skynet, break glass" signs handy just in case. 🤖

• The industry might need to step up its self-regulation game, or risk facing a "move fast and break things" backlash from the public. After all, even HAL 9000 had some good intentions at first. 🎬

4. Chinese equities surge 15.7% in best week since Nov 2008 🚀

HK and Chinese stocks gear up for best performance in a decade

Key takeaways:

• CSI 300 index up 15.7% for the week, best performance since Nov 2008 and Hang Seng index rose 13% since start of week, biggest weekly gain since October 1998.

• Beijing launched $114bn economic stimulus package to boost stock market.

• PBoC unveiled Rmb800bn ($114B) lending pool for capital markets.

• European stocks lifted, with Stoxx 600 hitting fresh record high.

• Stimulus measures aim to meet 5% economic growth target for the year.

What this could mean for the Chinese economy in the global economy:

• China's economic stimulus package is like a shot of espresso for the global economy - it's perking things up, but we'll have to see if it leads to jitters later.

• The surge in Chinese equities could attract more foreign investment, potentially strengthening China's position in the global financial landscape. However, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. 🤷‍♀️ 

• If successful, it could lead to increased consumer spending and demand for imports, benefiting global trade partners. But remember, what goes up must come down - let's hope this isn't just another bubble waiting to pop! 🎈

5. Unicorns become rare again: 21 companies hit $1B valuation quarterly in 2024 🦄

Key takeaways:

• Unicorns (companies valued over $1 billion) have returned to rarity in 2024.

• An average of 21 companies per quarter in the US achieved $1B+ valuations in H1 2024.

• This contrasts sharply with 2021, when 333 companies reached unicorn status.

• Current unicorns tend to be later-stage companies, with fewer Series A and B rounds reaching the milestone.

• The industry distribution of unicorns has slightly shifted, with SaaS taking a smaller share than in previous years.

What this could mean for the startup industry:

• The era of easy money and inflated valuations (the ZIRP-era) is over, forcing startups to focus on sustainable business models and profitability. 💼

• Investors might start becoming discerning again instead of being overly optimistic when evaluating startups. Who knew actual revenue would become trendy again? 🤓

Other stories:

AI

Sam Altman says no plan to receive ‘giant equity stake’ in OpenAI.

TikTok parent ByteDance to use Huawei chips for new AI model.

OpenAI offering Thrive Capital with a better deal than others.

Tech

Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses get four free upgrades.

Spotify is back up after a Sunday outage.

Experts highlight the dangers of tech companies’ power over society.

Startup

AI startups generate money quicker than past tech companies.

VCs predict surge in mortgage-related startups due to Fed cuts.

Cisco’s $1B fund to invest in AI startups.

Business

Fidelity has cut X’s value by 79% since Musk purchase.

Musk’s X needs to pay off fines before reinstating in Brazil.

US Politics

Harris says trump needs to trust women to take their own decisions.

Trump on how he’ll help US businesses through taxes and tariffs.

Harris makes a capitalist pitch to boost economy as Trump goes deeper into populism.

Trump calls for tariffs for a ‘new American industrialism’.

Top Economies (non-US)

Japan stock falls after PM election.

China factory surveys show economy weakening, as Beijing steps up support.

Unraveling Germany’s economy underperformance.

Increasing India’s tourism share of the economy.

Fascinating / Funny

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