Howdy folks! I’m on the road again today, so we just have our Top Stories and Mind Candy sections for this edition of the newsletter. Hope you enjoy it!

Today’s top stories:

1. Musk wanted 60% stake to fund Mars city dreams.

2. Fed braces for 3.5% rates in 2025.

3. Amazon also donates $1M to Trump inauguration fund.

4. Broadcom shares surge 24% due to AI chip demand.

5. USD forecast to drop by 6% in 2025.

Market Pulse

🗓️ Economic Calendar

🔥 Top Stories

1. OpenAI reveals Musk wanted 60% stake to fund Mars city dreams ⚔️

⏳ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Musk is suing OpenAI to stop its shift from nonprofit to for-profit.

  • Lawsuit now includes Microsoft as a defendant and Shivon Zilis as a plaintiff.

• OpenAI hit back, claims Musk pushed for a for-profit structure himself.

  • Documents show Musk registered a for-profit version of OpenAI in 2017 called Open Artificial Intelligence Technologies, Inc.

  • Text messages show Musk wanted 50-60% equity stake in the for-profit structure.

  • Altman expressed sadness over the feud.

• OpenAI accused Musk of seeking personal enrichment and planning to fund a Mars city with his stake.

• Meta has also opposed OpenAI's restructuring, warning of a harmful precedent for nonprofits in a letter to California's AG.

💡 How it impacts you:

• AI innovation may slow down as legal battles distract OpenAI and xAI from advancing their technologies.

• Consumer AI adoption could shift, with rivalries influencing product releases and partnerships.

• Privacy concerns intensify as Microsoft faces scrutiny over its involvement with OpenAI.

🔮 Industry prediction:

AI lawsuits are having their "Real Housewives" moment - everyone's got receipts, nobody's holding back, and the drama's reshaping the whole industry.

• Who's Moving: 
  🏃‍♀️ Leading: Legal teams (the new tech influencers)
  🚶‍♂️ Following: AI companies updating their founding docs
  ⌛ Waiting: Traditional tech companies watching from the sidelines

• What's Next: 
  Now: Explosive revelations and corporate tea-spilling
  6 Months: New standard for AI company governance
  1 Year: Every major AI launch comes with lawyers on speed dial

⚡ The bottom line:

OpenAI’s legal clash with Musk is the AI world’s court room drama with Mars colonies and billion-dollar stakes.

2. Fed braces for 3.5% rates through 2025 as Trump policies loom 📊

Tariffs by Trump are set to increase inflation, per economists

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Economists predict Fed will keep interest rates at 3.5% or higher in 2025.

  • Rates cuts to 4.25-4.5% range next week.

• Over 80% of surveyed economists believe inflation won't hit 2% target until January 2026 or later.

• 60% of economists predict Trump's proposed policies would hurt US growth.

• GDP growth outlook improves to 2.3% from 2%, with next recession not expected until Q3 2026 or later.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Higher interest rates likely to keep mortgage and auto loan costs elevated longer than expected.

• Consumer prices expected to remain higher than Fed's target, affecting everyday purchases.

• Possible price increases on imported goods if new tariffs materialize.

🔮 Industry prediction: 

Picture the Fed as your friend who promised to split the dinner bill but keeps ordering expensive appetizers - they might start small with rate cuts but the final tab could stay high longer than anyone planned.

• Key Players:
  🎯 Moving Markets: Federal Reserve playing head chef in the economic kitchen
  ⚡ Making Moves: Banks adjusting their menus of rates and loans
  👥 Worth Watching: Companies digesting the cost of doing business

• Timeline: 
  Q1: First taste of rate cuts, but don't expect the full meal deal
  Q2: Everyone realizes this economic diet is lasting longer than planned
  2H: The real price of the policy buffet becomes clear

⚡ The bottom line: Like your gym membership in January, the Fed's rate-cutting plans might start strong but end up moving slower than expected.

3. 💰 Amazon plots $1M Trump inaugural donation as tech giants seek fresh start

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Amazon preparing a $1 million donation to Trump's inaugural fund.

  • Jeff Bezos scheduled to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago next week.

• Meta Platforms also pledged $1 million to the inaugural fund.

• Amazon will stream inauguration via Prime Video, valued at another $1 million.

• Blue Origin faces competition from SpaceX, with Elon Musk advising Trump.

• Google CEO Sundar Pichai also scheduled to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Big Tech's doing its own Succession season - everyone's trying to get on the good side of Logan Roy (Trump).

• Who's Moving: 
  🏃‍♀️ Leading: Meta, Amazon
  🚶‍♂️ Following: Google
  ⌛ Waiting: Apple, Microsoft

• What's Next: 
  Now: Tech giants making inaugural donations
  6 Months: Softened regulatory stance toward tech companies
  1 Year: Reshuffled tech landscape based on Trump administration relationships

⚡ The bottom line: Tech giants are passing around the olive branch like it's a trending TikTok dance challenge, with Amazon and Meta leading the $1M peace offering parade.

4. 🚀 Broadcom shares surge 24% after CEO hints at $90B AI chip market play

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Broadcom stock jumped 24% following CEO's AI market comments.

  • Stock's revenue multiple rose to 18.1, nearly matching Nvidia's 18.3.

• CEO Hock Tan suggested potential AI chip market of $60-90B by fiscal 2027.

  • Current AI chip revenue sits at $12.2B for Broadcom.

• Broadcom developing chips for Apple and OpenAI.

• Analysts debate over market size versus actual revenue potential.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Investment landscape shifting beyond Nvidia for AI chip exposure.

• Competition could lead to more affordable AI-powered devices and services.

• Broader chip availability might speed up AI integration in everyday tech.

🔮 Industry prediction:

The AI chip game is pulling a Breaking Bad - Broadcom's trying to cook up their own special recipe while Nvidia's still the Heisenberg of the market.

• Who's Moving: 
  🏃‍♀️ Leading: Nvidia
  🚶‍♂️ Following: Broadcom, AMD
  ⌛ Waiting: Traditional chipmakers

• What's Next: 
  Now: Tech giants designing custom AI chips
  6 Months: New AI chip players entering market
  1 Year: Fragmented AI chip landscape with specialized solutions

⚡ The bottom line: Wall Street's treating Broadcom like that indie band that just dropped a surprise hit single, but the real question is if they can fill stadiums like Nvidia.

5. Dollar surge faces 'gravity check' as Fed policy shifts 💱

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• The US Dollar has jumped 6.3% this year - biggest rally since 2015.

• Wall Street predicts peak dollar by mid-2025; SocGen forecasting 6% drop.

• Trump's tariff plans sending ripples through global currency markets.

• Morgan Stanley predicts falling US rates and improved risk appetite will weaken dollar.

• Historical pattern: Dollar crashed in 2017 after similar Trump-driven surge in 2016.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Travel abroad could get more expensive later in 2025 as dollar weakens.

• Imported goods likely to cost more, from electronics to clothing.

• Shopping from overseas websites might become pricier.

• Your buying power for foreign-made products could shrink.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Think of the dollar as that trendy restaurant everyone's dying to try - packed now, but the buzz won't last forever.

• Key Players:
  🎯 Moving Markets: Federal Reserve as the head chef
  ⚡ Making Moves: Global trading desks playing musical chairs with currencies
  👥 Worth Watching: International central banks waiting for their turn

• Timeline: 
  Q1: Dollar stays hot like the latest food trend
  Q2: First signs of cooling as other markets heat up
  2H: The crowd starts finding new favorite spots

⚡ The bottom line: Dollar's pulling a Taylor Swift - dominating the charts now but even superstars need a break.

💫 Mind Candy

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