Welcome to another edition of the Techonomy Barista, where the economy is looking like my gym motivation (we're working on it) 💪.

Today’s top stories:

1. China hits back at 104% cumulative US tariffs.

2. OpenAI's $40B deal skews venture market.

3. Stocks rebound 1.5% in China despite Trump’s tariffs.

4. Pressure rises on Oracle to finish OpenAI data center.

5. A father-son espionage scandal at Deel, an HR software co.

Market Pulse

🗓️ Economic Calendar

🔥 Top Stories

1. China hits back at 104% US tariffs with fight-to-the-end stance 🚨

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Trump threatens a 50% tariff hike unless China backs off on retaliatory tariffs.

• China vows to "fight to the end," calling US actions a "mistake on top of a mistake."

• Tariff escalation takes total announced US duties to 104% on Chinese goods in 2025.

• Xi shifts focus to domestic consumption as export sector faces pressure.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Higher tariffs = pricier Chinese goods like electronics, toys, tools.

• Weaker yuan may counteract tariffs, keeping some import prices steady.

• Stock market jitters likely as US-China tensions rise.

• Supply chains under strain, especially for import-heavy businesses.

• Investments in China riskier short term due to volatile policy shifts.

🔮 Industry prediction:

US-China trade could enter a 'Cold War 2.0' phase — with tariffs replacing tanks and currency, debt, and chips as new battlegrounds.

Key Players:

• 🎯 Moving Markets: Trump, Xi Jinping, PBoC, Fed

• ⚡ Making Moves: Chinese SOEs, US importers, Tesla, Walmart

• 👥 Worth Watching: ASEAN suppliers, India, Mexico as alt trade partners

Timeline:

• Q2: US tariffs kick in, yuan stays weak

• Q3: Beijing unveils major consumer stimulus

• 2H: Global supply chains rewire to avoid tariff zones

⚡ The bottom line:

Trump’s tariff tantrum hits 104% — like doubling the cover charge and wondering why the party’s empty while China plays currency DJ to keep exports dancing.

2. OpenAI's $40B deal skews venture market 🚀

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• U.S. venture funding hit $91.5B in Q1 2025, up 116% YoY.

  • OpenAI's $40B round was the main driver of that spike.

• Remove OpenAI and the quarter looks average compared to past years.

• Number of deals dropped 25% YoY, signaling concentration not expansion.

• AI startups grabbed 71% of all VC dollars, up from 62% in Q4 2024.

💡 How it impacts you:

• More AI tools coming soon as startups get flush with capital.

• Enterprise software may get smarter, faster than you can say "pilot program".

• Job roles may shift, especially in data and automation-heavy sectors.

• Fewer IPOs mean less chance to invest early via public markets.

• AI startup valuations are frothy, so expect sky-high price tags if you're shopping for AI services.

🔮 Industry prediction:

AI funding is turning into a high-stakes bidding war, and only the top 1% of startups are getting golden tickets—the rest are left on read.

Who's Moving:

• 🏃‍♀️ Leading: OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, Inflection, Scale AI

• 🚶‍♀️ Following: Felicis, Lightspeed, a16z, Sequoia, Coatue

• ⌛ Waiting: Traditional SaaS VCs, non-AI sectors, smaller regional firms

What's Next:

• Now: AI startup deals flooded with term sheets.

• 6 Months: Valuation bubble watch begins.

• 1 Year: Sharp funding bifurcation—elite AI vs everyone else.

⚡ The bottom line:

OpenAI's $40B flex just turned AI VC into a Squid Game—winner takes all, and the rest just watch the pitch deck pile.

3. Stocks rebound 1.5% in China despite Trump’s tariff war 🌎

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• China stocks rebounded 1.5% after a 13.2% crash in Hong Kong a day earlier.

• Japan's Nikkei surged 6% on tariff talks between Tokyo and Washington.

• S&P 500 fell 0.2% Monday after brushing bear market territory but futures up 1.5%.

• Trump confirmed 50% tariffs to hit Wednesday if China doesn’t back down.

• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned of lasting damage and possible recession.

💡 How it impacts you:

• Stocks may stay volatile as tariff threats continue swinging markets.

• Retirement accounts tied to global equities may take a hit if tensions escalate.

• Chinese and U.S. companies could pass higher costs on to consumers.

• Recession fears could impact job security in export-reliant industries.

• Short-term gains from government support may not hold if trade war deepens.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Markets are playing hot potato with tariffs – expect short rallies followed by sharp dips as politics drives the price.

Key Players:

• 🎯 Moving Markets: Trump, Xi Jinping, Jamie Dimon

• ⚡ Making Moves: Central Huijin, People’s Bank of China, BOJ

• 👥 Worth Watching: Sovereign funds, government-backed buybacks

Timeline:

• Q2: Tariffs jump to 50%, stock volatility returns

• Q3: China deepens stimulus, possible Fed easing

• 2H: Recession fears harden, flight to safe assets begins

⚡ The bottom line:

Markets rebounded 1.5% on Tuesday — like a cat landing on its feet — but with tariffs rising to 50%, this calm could vanish faster than a TikTok trend.

4. 🏗️ Pressure rises on Oracle to finish OpenAI data center

⏳️ The deets in 30 seconds:

• Oracle is racing to finish a Texas-sized data center in Abilene for OpenAI, spanning 17 football fields.

• Contractors are under 7-day workweeks and intense pressure from Oracle exec Mahesh Thiagarajan to meet a spring deadline.

• Delays expose Oracle’s inexperience with mega cloud infra and reliance on scrappy partners, with added risks from Trump’s new global tariffs.

• The deal is risky: Oracle signed a 15-year lease with $1B in obligations but only has a 5-year OpenAI commitment.

• Abilene’s scope is ballooning—Oracle wants to scale it to host 700,000 GPUs, betting it can outpace AWS and Azure.

💡 Why it matters:

• AI access could slow if OpenAI pulls back, creating a ripple in available compute power for apps and services.

• Prices for AI tools and services may spike if GPU availability drops due to construction delays.

• Data privacy risks rise as companies scramble to host AI in fewer, bigger data centers with less oversight.

• Tariff hikes on server parts could make hardware more expensive, ultimately passed on to consumers.

• Cloud service stability might be shaky if providers stretch thin on mega deals and fail to diversify clients.

🔮 Industry prediction:

Oracle’s late-game play may trigger a GPU land grab as hyperscalers battle like it’s the Fast & Furious: Data Drift era—speed, not size, wins.

Who's Moving:

• 🏃‍♀️ Leading: CoreWeave, AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure

• 🚪 Following: Oracle, Crusoe, Snowflake

• ⌛ Waiting: IBM, Dell, HPE

What's Next:

• Now: AI firms racing to secure GPU clusters at scale.

• 6 Months: GPU shortages drive consolidation among smaller cloud providers.

• 1 Year: AI infra demand reshapes real estate, power grid, and capex priorities.

⚡ The bottom line:

Oracle’s Texas data bet is a $10B sprint in crocs—all speed, no traction, and every cloud player is watching the slip.

5. Father-Son team sparks infamous spy scandal at Deel

📝 Background

Deel, a $12 billion HR tech startup, is now entangled in a major corporate espionage scandal allegedly orchestrated by its CEO, Alex Bouaziz, and his father Philippe Bouaziz, who is also the company’s chairman and CFO. Known for aggressively scaling Deel into a Silicon Valley darling, the father-son duo's tight, family-run structure and confrontational business style have raised concerns even before the scandal broke.

🔑 Key Developments

• Alex Bouaziz and his father Philippe allegedly hired a Rippling employee, Keith O’Brien, to spy on their rival, Rippling.

• O’Brien testified in Irish court that the Bouazizes paid him in crypto and coordinated his actions via Telegram.

• The espionage was uncovered via a honeypot trap created by Rippling, leading to O’Brien’s full cooperation with authorities.

• Deel allegedly offered O’Brien a flight to Dubai to escape legal repercussions.

• Family members, including Philippe’s daughters, hold various roles at Deel, raising governance concerns.

• Philippe previously told colleagues he had spies in other companies; some believed it was a joke.

• Polymarket bettors now place a 34% chance Alex will be ousted and an 11% chance he will go to jail.

💡 Implications

• The scandal has cast doubt over Deel’s IPO viability and corporate governance structure.

• Investor confidence is shaken, with some reconsidering the risks of tight-knit founder control.

• Potential for regulatory scrutiny over crypto payments and international evasion attempts.

• Highlights the thin ethical line in startup rivalries, especially in competitive SaaS markets.

• Could prompt board interventions or executive restructuring to preserve investor value.

🔚 Conclusion

Deel’s rise from a remote hiring startup to a $12B powerhouse is now overshadowed by a courtroom spy thriller. With damning testimony, investor unease, and an IPO hanging in the balance, the Bouaziz family's iron grip on Deel may finally be tested. The Silicon Valley soap opera isn't just about governance anymore—it's about survival, credibility, and whether family empires can withstand public market scrutiny.

💫 Mind Candy

🗞️ Speed Reads

🤖 AI & Tech

Anthropic CEO is worried that spies from China are after $100M AI secrets.

Amazon launches AI agent that can take control of web browsing and perform simple actions. $AMZN ( ▼ 2.93% )  

New Anthropic research says reasoning models don't always say what they think.

Meta blames bugs after poor performance reported by users. $META ( ▼ 3.68% )  

💼 Startup & Business

OpenAI’s funding could be cut $10B if they don’t convert to for-profit by end of year.

Actively AI raises $22M to build Sales-related AI solutions.

Turbine raises $22M to help VC investors get cash without selling their stakes.

🇺🇸 U.S Politics

US is starting to look like an emerging market after tariff shock.

Trump says high tariffs may have prevented the Great Depression. History says otherwise.

Tariffs are making billionaires turn on Trump.

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